April 9, 2020
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What You Need To Know To Not Get Infected | Dr. Nicholas Christakis | CORONAVIRUS | Rubin Report


– It’s an epidemic
that’s coming to us. It’s this wave, a pulse
of of the virus as it’s spreading from
person to person and growing exponentially. And the reason that this
is very important is that, let’s say for the
sake of argument 100,000 Americans are going
to die of this condition in the next year. It makes all the
difference in the world, whether those hundred
thousand die over the course of the next year, or whether all 100,000
die in the next month. If they die in the next month, they’re gonna overwhelm
our healthcare system. And many more Americans will
die, that would have died if we allowed our
healthcare system and our supply chain to work. (upbeat music) – Joining me today is a
sociologist and physician known for his research
on social networks and the socio-economic,
bio-social and evolutionary determinants of behavior,
health and longevity. Nick Christakis, welcome
back to The Rubin Report. – Thank you for having me, Dave. – I’m glad to have you back, wish we could be
doing this live. But obviously, we’re
practicing a little social distancing right now. With everything
going on with corona, I’ve been trying to find a wide
array of people to talk to. You put out, what I
thought was a really fantastic Twitter thread. I rarely send people to Twitter, but you put out a
great Twitter thread that covered this through
all of the disciplines that I just read
there in your bio, which are quite extensive. So let’s just start
one at a time, the two things that
people have heard the most about at the moment,
social distancing, and flattening the curve. Can you just explain both and why they’re
important right now? – Yeah, so the virus takes
advantage of the fact that we are social animals. That we assemble in groups,
that we have friends, that we touch each other
and hug each other. And it uses those connections that we assemble ourselves
into these networks. It uses those
connections as a highway to travel through our species. And so the challenge
for us right now is how to interrupt
that highway, how to break the paths
that the virus uses to travel from person to
person, to person to person. The reason that’s important
is that this flattening the curve idea, so we’re gonna
engage in social distancing, we’re gonna stop
interacting with each other, we’re gonna keep physically
apart from each other. That’s the most important thing. In fact, I’ve been advocating
for a shift in terminology, to physical distancing
from social distancing. In other words, we can
still interact socially, but from a distance, like
you and I are doing now. And so we want
physical distancing. It’s irony we wanna like, bond together, at the same
time as we are sort of separating from each
other in terms physically. Anyway, the reason
we’re engaging in that physical distancing is to cut
the path through the network. And the reason we’re doing
that, is to flatten the curve. What does that mean? Well, it’s an epidemic
that’s coming to us, it’s this wave, a pulse of
the virus as it’s spreading from person to person and
growing exponentially. And the reason that this
is very important is that, let’s say, for the
sake of argument, 100,000 Americans are going
to die of this condition in the next year, it makes all
the difference in the world, whether those 100,000 die over
the course of the next year, or whether all 100,000
die in the next month. If they die in the next month, they’re gonna overwhelm
our healthcare system, and many more Americans will
die than would have died if we allowed our
healthcare system and our supply chain to work. So we wanna flatten the curve. We have got this peak
of a curve, the epidemic is coming at us and it’s gonna hit lots of
people at the same time. We wanna stop it from doing
that, and flatten the curve and push it out into the future. And when we do that, we
achieve a number of objectives. First of all, at
any given point, fewer people are sick
so our healthcare system can take care of them. Many more might live
as a result of that. Second, we push some of the
cases out into the future, so that maybe some of the
people that gets sick eventually will get sick at a time when
we’ve invented a vaccine, or we know better how
to treat the people. So we also gain that benefit
by flattening the curve. And as I said, not only do
we decompress our healthcare system, not only do we push
people into the future, when we might be better
able to care for them, but we reduce mortality as well. So maybe instead of 100,000
dying, maybe 90,000 die if we push it forward. So that’s why we’re
social distancing and that’s what flattening
the curve means. – So I guess the obvious
follow up then is, do we have any evidence that
the things that we are doing at the moment or being
told to do is working? Is the curve being flattened? – We cannot know yet because, we have not had adequate
testing in this country. We don’t have
adequate surveillance, like they did in
China and Korea. And so we really can’t be sure. We know this type of behavior, this social distancing behavior, the banning of public
gatherings, the
closure of schools, the reduction in group
size, the self-isolation, we know that that works
from other epidemics, but we cannot yet know
how much it’s working in the United States right now because we don’t have
the kind of surveillance we need to see it. – So I think when people
hear about social distancing, and as you called it
physical distancing, I think people are
confused or worried. What about the people
that are actually in the house with them
family, kids, parents, whatever it is, that
might have to go out and then come back
into the house? – Yeah, that’s a risk that we
run and that the Chinese ran, when they locked down
930 million people
in their countries since January the 25th. So typically, what
you do is you try to compress all
of your shopping, in fact Americans should begin
to be doing that right now. Instead of going out three
times a week to buy stuff go out once a week,
compress everything, minimize the amount of
time you’re out and about. When the person does go
out, they should ideally try to wash their
hands frequently, not press elevator buttons. The Chinese have all these
ingenious things where, when you go into an elevator, there’s like a little pin
cushion of toothpicks, and you take a toothpick,
you press your button, and then you discard
the toothpick. So that you’re not
touching buttons because the virus can spread
on smooth surfaces, that’s called fomites. So, a person leaving the
household should do that. If someone in the
household does get sick and they are tested positive,
you can, in principle, isolate that person
for two weeks from other members
of the household, or in the worst case scenario, they infect the other
people in the household, but nevertheless, it’s then
constrained to one household. Keep in mind that,
most people infected by this pathogen do fine. The great majority of
people will have no symptoms or will have minor symptoms. Some people however, maybe
25% over will get sick, and of those, maybe
a fifth of those so total of 5% maybe
of the people infected, will get seriously ill. And then of course, on
average, we don’t know exactly how many of the people
who are infected will die. And the reason, again
we don’t know is we don’t have good testing. So we don’t know what
the denominator is, we don’t know of 10,000
people who are infected, we know that because
they were tested, let’s say, what happens to them? And how many of them get sick? And how many of
them need ICU care? And how many of them die? We don’t know that
denominator accurately. But our best estimate is
that, of those infected somewhere between half a percent and one and a half
percent will die. And that’s a large number,
but it’s very graded by age. So if you’re younger than 25,
your risk of death is very small, maybe 0.2% that’s a
big risk for young person, but nevertheless,
it’s a small risk. And then middle-aged
people around 50 or 60, it’s about 1%, and then
above 80, it’s about 20%. So it’s a very steep
curve with age. – Do you have a
recommendation then if you’re in the
household right now, and you’re any of these
ages, let’s say you’re 25, you’re 50, and you’re 80,
let’s just go with those ages. And you’re not feeling great, should you be then trying
to go to the hospital or I guess maybe if you’re
80 you are, or just stay home and deal with it
the best you can. – Yeah, in general, one
of the things we all need to be very good about
doing right now is, giving our healthcare
workers a break. So you should not be
going to the hospital with a sniffles right now. There are a few things
that Americans should do, you should get a flu shot. One of the reasons you
should get a flu shot is not because the
flu shot prevents you from getting
coronavirus, it does not. But if you get a flu shot, it lowers your risk of
actually getting the flu and therefore, you won’t go
to the hospital with the flu. And now is not a
good time for you, to be burdening our healthcare
system for your own sake, or for the sake of the system. Furthermore, going
to the hospital if you’re not actually sick,
or if you’re just mildly sick, there are a lot of actually
seriously sick people there, you might get the
germ from them. In a hospital waiting room
is not a time to be right now unless you actually need it. So generally speaking, the
symptoms of coronavirus are variable, you should
have a fever above 101.5, it’s in about 85% of people, not everyone but most
people have a fever. A dry cough would be a symptom and then there’s a
shortness of breath. Certainly, if you have
shortness of breath and a fever, absolutely, you should
go to the hospital. And then there’s a whole
host of other symptoms at lower percentages. So if you’re a
25-year-old person and
you have a runny nose, and low great temperature
and some muscle aches, it’s probably not coronavirus, stay home until you get sicker. That would be a
reasonable choice. If you’re an older person, then you should have
a lower threshold. And ideally, if you
went, we would test you, but we can’t, we don’t
have enough testing yet. We’re hopefully the country
will get better at that in the coming months. – Yeah, all right, I wanna
keep going through this Twitter thread ’cause
you hit it just sort of at every possible level. So you talked about
reasons to close schools, even if kids there aren’t sick. – Yeah, I mean, school closures, there’s a lot of
debate about this. There are two kinds
of school closures, and most of the country’s
shutting the schools anyway now. So this point is, is behind us. I was sending out this
information like three or four weeks ago, but school
closures are two kinds. There’s reactive school closure, when there’s a case in the
school, and you close the school and that’s pretty
uncontroversial. I mean, most parents, teachers,
public health experts, there’s an outbreak of
epidemic in the school. Let’s close the school. And it’s been shown
that if you do that, if you close the
schools in an area, you lower the cumulative
prevalence of the condition by about 25% and postpone the
epidemic by a week or two, which is good. So, reactive school closures
helpful but, it’s not as good as we can do that even better, is something called
proactive school closure. When you close the schools, even before there’s a
case in the schools. For instance, you living
in a mid-size town, there’s a case in the
community, it’s something called the community-acquired case. So it’s not like someone
from Italy or China flew to your town,
landed, had symptoms and you diagnose them. That would be an imported
case, maybe you could isolate that person and self
quarantine the people who they connected with. No, we’re talking about
a situation in which someone in the
community is diagnosed, and we have no idea
where they got it. They’re like a canary
in the coal mine, and if that’s happening, you
can be quite confident that within a week or two,
it’s gonna be in school. So why not close the school
now, reduce the force of the epidemic by
decreasing social mixing. And ironically, even though
the kids aren’t affected by this condition, they still
can transmit the pathogen even though they
themselves sick. And furthermore, one of the
ways that school closure works is precisely because, it compels
the parents to stay home. So it reduces the parents
interacting with each other. That’s how it works in part. – Yeah, it sounds like
we’ve basically done this pretty well, maybe a little
later than you wanted to but it sounds like now
we’re there, right? – Definitely, later
than we wanted to. And for schools
that are still open, what I would strongly recommend, and my wife and I had an article
in The Atlantic about this a few days ago, is if you
insist on staying open, and I don’t think that’s
the best course of action, at least, you can implement
a whole host of other harm mitigation strategies. For example, give
parents the choice, if they wanna keep their kids
home, they should stay home. I wanna mention this
because it’s also relevant to employers and workers. Allowing any worker who can
work at home, to work at home it’s not just good
for that worker from like their
selfish point of view. It helps everybody, because
you reduce the number of people at the office. So only the people
that have to be there, should be there,
same with schools. If some parents
wanna keep the school should let them keep
their kids home, you can broaden drop
off and pick up hours. So not everyone is arriving
between eight and 8:15 to drop off their kids,
bumping against each other, as they come through the door, parents interacting
you let’s say, you give a 45 minute drop off. It needs a bit more manpower
on the part of the school, but you reduce the social
density at pickup and drop off. Cancel staff meetings,
provide cafeteria seating, broaden the lunch hour, and have the kids sit
every other chair. These are things that schools
can do if they insist on staying open maybe in
our Southern States, for instance, where maybe the
virus hasn’t hit so much yet, but that nevertheless
are helpful. – So you sort of hit
this one already. But do you wanna add
anything generally on how the flu spreads within
social networks? – Well, first of all,
we call this the flu and there’s a broad category
of respiratory diseases, influenza the flu is a
particular kind of virus. This is a corona virus,
which is a little different, but I call it the flu
too maybe, I’m lazy. But this is a kind of
flu, the corona virus, there are other corona virus,
like the common cold is caused by about 200 different viruses. About five of them are corona
viruses, just like COVID-19 or SARS-CoV-2, which
is affecting us now. And we’ve gotten used to it,
just to just to cut ahead to the chase. The ultimate outcome of
this situation is that a new virus has been
introduced into our species, it’s gonna become
what’s called endemic. Just gonna be there all the
time, like the common cold, like the flu, we hope it’ll
reduce in its severity, we hope we humans
will eventually slowly become immune to it and we
will get sort of hard immunity. So some people will continue
to get this forever now, but hopefully at less intensity, and not all at once, so
that our healthcare system can care for them. Anyway, so the corona virus,
and the flu, and influenza and other pathogens, rhinovirus
that causes the common cold. These cause
respiratory disorders, and the corona virus
is one of them. I actually forgot your
question, I’m sorry. – The question was how it
spreads within social networks, which you’ve sort of been
hitting throughout this? – Yeah, so it spreads
exactly across social ties. And in the Twitter thread
you’re alluding to, I have an animation that
shows if you map a network, you can see it like, light up. And one of the things that’s
been so difficult for people to understand, and it’s
a little bit related to this network idea. Is that epidemics start
slowly, for the longest time, it seems like
nothing is happening. But it’s in the nature
of exponential growth, that nothing is happening,
nothing is happening, nothing is happening and
then all of a sudden, a lot happens. And this has been why
it’s been so difficult for many Americans
to appreciate. They look around and they’re
like, nothing’s happening. But if we monitor the
situation, we see the case are doubling, the virus
is on the loose. We go from 10, a week later
to 20, a week later to 40. And we think they’re
just 40 cases in the United States, who cares? Then it’s 80, then it’s 160
cases, but then before you know we have 10,000, 20,000,
40,000, 100,000, 200,000, and it’s just on the loose. And that’s why everyone
is so alarmed right now, all the public
health professionals. – So that’s actually
the perfect segue to what your next tweet in
the thread was which is, how these epidemics
come in waves. And then interestingly, how this is actually
related to weather. – Yes, so one of the things to understand about this is that probably judging from
previous pandemics, maybe 40% of Americans
will be infected with this, maybe less, maybe 10 or
20%, maybe up to 60%. With the 1957 pandemic,
ultimately about
40% of Americans were infected, but
it comes in waves. So you were hit by
the first pulse of it, typically in the summer, for
a combination of reasons, including that human
beings go outside, we’re not as densely packed,
maybe the ventilation outside reduces the transmission
of the pathogen, maybe the heat or the
humidity play a role in reducing the transmissibility
of the pathogen. So our behavior changes,
the biology of the pathogen is such, that the temperature
and humidity affected, transmission tends to decline. But then, the virus has gone
to the Southern Hemisphere, where it’s winter there,
during our summer. And then, when we returned to
work in school in September, it comes back, this is
a very typical scenario. So unfortunately, it’s
likely not certain and I need to again emphasize
that, everything I’m telling you today, is based on the
best available knowledge to the best of my knowledge. It’s possible that
a year from now, people will watch this video
and think I was right about this and wrong about that,
and that’s just the knowledge we have now. This pathogens only been
with us for three months. It started, we think in
mid-December in Wuhan, and it started spreading around
the world in mid-January. It was already in
Seattle by mid-January, we know from genetic analysis, and then we’re
sort of spreading. And now here we are in
March 18, two months after mid-January, that’s a not a
lot of time for scientists to figure out what’s going on. So anyway, so we think it’ll
spend the summer mostly in the Southern Hemisphere, although, we’ll have some
cases and then it’ll come back in the fall. And in the 1918 pandemic,
the second wave was deadlier than the first wave. So, in 1957 that wasn’t
as much the case. So we don’t know exactly
what’s gonna happen, but then they’ll probably be
a second, maybe a third wave, and eventually, basically,
we’ll get used to it. And it’ll just sort of
be there all the time. – So since you
mentioned Seattle, and we’re talking about weather. So Seattle, it sounds like
they’ve got a strange situation or a more severe situation
going on there perhaps. It also rains a lot
there, I’m here in SoCal, where it’s sunny
and 70 every day, although, it has been
raining last week. I mean, could that alone, just the weather patterns
like that affect any of this? – Well, the Chinese
scientists have done some research on this. We don’t know, is the
answer to that question. People hope, they’re hints
in multiple directions. I do not think we’re gonna
have a complete weather cure, that is to say, I don’t think
the disease is simply gonna disappear, because
of the weather. The evidence is conflicting. If I had to guess I would say that probably we’ll
get some reduction in cases from the
warmth and the humidity. But it’s hard to know what. The Chinese did some analysis because their
country is so large, where they looked
at transmission all
throughout China, and in some parts of China it
was hot, in some parts cold, in some parts humid,
in some parts not. And they kinda looked and saw, where was transmission
the worst. And it seems like, optimal
transmission is around 40 degrees Fahrenheit on
average daily temperature so cold, but so when you get
much colder, much hotter, that seems to be better, less
transmission but not zero. And then they
looked at humidity, and it looks like very
dry weather is bad. So if humidity is less than 5%, that’s not particularly good. But if you look at
weather patterns for where the virus has struck, so
far, it seems that countries closer to the equator
seem to be doing better. So it’s a mixed picture. I don’t know the answer,
but if I had to guess, I think the weather will
make some difference, but I don’t think it’ll
be definitive difference. – So I think I’m actually
gonna skip the next one in the thread because
you were talking about vulnerable groups. But since you’re
talking about… ‘Cause I think we’ve
sort of hit that already unless there’s anything
else you wanna add about older people or sick people. – Yeah, I think we
have to be mindful. People on dialysis, people
with chronic illnesses, institutionalized people, the
elderly, homeless populations. And one of the things
that’s really important to understand about
it pandemic is that, it’s the great equalizer,
we’re all in this together. Actually, the reason
you should care about, let’s say the homeless, or
people who are chronically ill is not just because
you should be kind, and compassionate
and altruistic. It’s actually your own
selfish interest too, because we do not want
populations that are reservoirs of this pathogen. We wanna take care of everybody,
so we all can be safer. This is why social distancing. When you practice
social distancing, you’re actually showing
kindness to others. One of the ironies
is that people think, “Oh, I’m gonna be brave and
show kindness by shaking “people’s hands and
being out and about.” Ironically, that’s not
the kind thing to do. The kind thing to do
is to remove yourself
from circulation, so that you’re not
circulating the pathogen. That’s the best thing
you can do for your group or your society. – I actually didn’t mean to
diminish any of those groups, but because you were
hitting on the China part, which was the next tweet,
I was gonna jump over that. So you actually, in the thread you called it
– I wasn’t suggesting you were.
– No, I know. – I wasn’t suggesting… I was just saying I was taking advantage of
the opening to point out to people in case
it wasn’t obvious why it’s not just a
question of compassion, it’s actually in
our self-interest, to take care of
these populations. – So you talked a
little bit about China. We live in this time
where it’s like, half the people are saying,
“China unleashed this “on the world,” half
the people are saying, “China has done nothing wrong.” You called in your
Twitter thread, you called China’s
response astonishing. Can you explain that? – Well, first of all, we would
know from genetic analysis if this was an
engineered weapon, and that’s a conspiracy
theory, there’s absolutely no evidence that any
such thing happened. And so, they certainly didn’t
release it deliberately because they’re killing
their own people and because of the study,
so that’s ridiculous. No, what I was describing
is China because of its totalitarian or authoritarian,
rather, government and its collectivist culture was able to put 930 million
people under a kind of home-based quarantine
beginning January the 25th for like eight weeks. It never in the history
of public health, has so many people been under such restriction for so
long to my knowledge. It’s unbelievable what
they were able to do because of their culture
and their government. And I call this a social
nuclear weapon because, it gives you a sense of
what they were fighting, the power of this pathogen
that they were confronting that they resorted to this. China did not decide
to do this for fun. And when I was trying to
communicate with that thread, that was now weeks ago, was to try to get attention
in the United States, like, look what’s
happening in China. This is not gonna
just stay there, this is not like
a Chinese problem. They’ve decided to put a billion
people under home arrest, for two months for fun. We need to prepare, we
need to think about this because, the virus is
gonna reach our shores. In fact, already when
I was writing that, it had reached our shores. This is what happens
in pandemics. No matter where
the disease starts, it spreads around the globe, and by the time
you’re aware of it, even if you’re aware of it,
30 days after inception, it’s too late given
movements of people. Even frankly, a
hundred years ago, given movements of
people on steamboats, and on trains and big compact
cities, the virus spreads. So, anyway, I was trying to
describe what the Chinese had done and it is
astonishing what they did. And they have brought down
their cases in a country of 1.4 billion people to under… Now, it’s like, I
don’t even know, it’s like 10 cases
a day or something in the whole nation. So this is, unfortunately what
we are facing in our country. And we have different strengths
and different weaknesses compared to China. One of their weaknesses,
we have a commitment to free and open
expression in our society. And in China, unfortunately,
the doctor who first tried to sound the alarm,
Dr. Wenliang Li, he was brought in on
charges of rumor mongering. He was basically using the
Facebook equivalent in China, and messaging his
friends and saying, “Oh my God, I’m seeing all
these patients in the hospital “with this particular
kind of pneumonia, “I’m worried we have
a new pathogen.” And the local
authorities called him in and accused him of
rumor mongering, which is not a crime
in our society. – Not yet.
– No So, I mean our strengths in
our society include our wealth, our openness, our
tremendous scientists. But we haven’t been
playing to those strengths, we’ve not been listening
to our scientists, we’ve not been
deploying our wealth, we haven’t been acting the
way we should be acting, and taking our strengths
to cope with this. And the Chinese use
different strengths and they frankly, coped very
effectively with this. I should say, just to be clear, what the Chinese
accomplished was they stopped the spread of the pathogen,
but they did not eradicate it. So the pathogen is still there,
and it will come back even to China, as it will
come back to us. But they have bought themselves
a huge amount of time to organize their response now, so they don’t lose
countless lives. – Okay, so actually, I think
most of the other things in the thread you’ve already hit, so I’ll only ask you one more
and then I just wanna do two or three audience
questions real quick. You mentioned the 1957
flu pandemic before. Can you talk about some of the
similarities and differences to what we’re dealing with now? – Yeah, well 1918, of
course, was the big one. That was the so called Spanish
Flu, which swept the world, killed many millions of
people, including our country. It was a different time. Of course, people were starving because of the war, there
was a lot of disruption because of the war. And it was a different pathogen, and there was no modern
medicine, no antibiotics, even against bacteria, and
we think many of those people died, not just because
of the viral infection, but then their lungs got
so called super infected with bacterial pneumonia,
which killed them, many people. So a lot was different then,
and we earlier we talked about how they came in three
waves and it was awful. And there was a great
depression of course, afterwards as well. So, I don’t think,
around the same time. Anyway, I don’t think that
this pandemic is thankfully gonna be that bad. But the nearest
analog I can see, even though it was a
different pathogen, and in some ways had
different epidemiology. For example, in 1957,
the pathogen also
killed young people, whereas this one does not. I think ’57 might be a good
model for what we’re facing. So every 10 years or
so, at risk viably, but at an unpredictable time,
the world has a pandemic. Most of your listeners will
remember SARS, or H1N1, or MERS and those have petered out, so people they don’t
take them seriously and they peter out for
a variety of reasons. Ironically, one of
the reasons is that, sometimes they’re too deadly. For instance, SARS was
about 10 times as deadly, as the COVID that
we’re facing now. And when a disease
is too deadly, it kills its victim too fast,
so the person can’t spread it. So this particular
pathogen we’re facing, has sort of middling
level lethality, it’s neither too
benign, nor too deadly, it’s not as deadly
as the 1918 virus, and it has middling
level transmissibility. It’s not very
difficult to transmit, and it’s not too
hard to transmit. And it’s sort of in the
middle there and in my view, it seems to be behaving
similar to the ’57 pandemic, which should be clear. Some of your listeners
older ones may remember it, but many people won’t. And part of the reason
people don’t remember this, we didn’t have the same
media environment then and of course, people
were dealing with polio and other deadly diseases. But that pandemic swept
over the United States and killed we think about a
hundred and 10,000 people, which back then, was half as
deadly as all of the cancer in the United States. So today, if we
have a ’57 pandemic, we’re talking hundreds of
thousands of Americans dying from COVID, if the disease
is half as deadly as cancer, as a group. So it’s serious, it
could be quite serious. I also wanna just take an
opportunity again to say, we don’t know exactly
what’s gonna happen and what’s very important
for your listeners is to understand that despite
political polarization, and despite our desire
to simplify our choices, should we have rice krispies,
or should we have cornflakes? There are shades of gray and
there’s nuance when it comes to serious policy dilemmas, and serious
scientific questions. So there’s a range of
outcomes we could observe in the United States from this. We don’t know exactly
what’s going to happen, but at best, 35,000
Americans are going to die, in my view, at best. And it’s quite possible
that 20% of Americans will get infected. That’s 60 million
Americans in the next year. And our best estimate
is that half a percent of those people might die. That’s 300,000 Americans dying in the next year
of this condition. And that’s possible. We’re not sure
it’s gonna happen. It might not happen. I hope it doesn’t happen, but it’s possible and that
is a very, very heavy burden. That’s 1957 pandemic. That’s half as deadly as
cancer, approximately. So that’s why everyone
is taken seriously. – So I got a ton of questions
specifically for you because I posted in the
Rubin Report community, I posted that we’re
having you on, I had everyone
look at the thread. So what I thought I’d do is I’ll just ask you
two or three now, and then I’m just
gonna email you one email with all
these questions, and maybe as you have a
little time here and there, you can throw some
things on Twitter that are maybe a
little more specific. Obviously, that’s
totally up to you. But I’ll just ask
you two or three now. I thought this was
really interesting, and I got a lot of
this type of question. What is the acceptable level
of risk in terms of disease and death that we’re
willing to accept in order to have a normally
functioning society and healthy economy? – Well, I would ask you
to think about what we do when it comes to mining safety, or other dangerous occupations like whether we equip our police with bulletproof
vests, for example. We spend money in a preventive
way to prevent deaths and hazardous
occupations all the time. Now, we don’t spend limitlessly, we don’t equip each
police officer, we expect people to
take some risk of death. We don’t spend limitlessly
even to secure our highways. Not every highway is
a divided highway, which we know is safer,
because it would cost too much. So there’s some
calculation we make about how much money
we’re willing to spend in order to save lives. And what you have to understand in this case is that we’re
dealing with a threat. And instantly death
is expensive too, like all these people dying and consuming
healthcare is expensive. So, preventing those death
saves us money as well. I acknowledge as
most experts do, that taking our economy
is a devastating thing. But I would suggest that if
people started dying like flies, if 300,000 Americans
started dying, our economy would
have tanked anyway. So the problem again,
is not that 300,000 extra Americans are gonna
die, although that’s not good. It’s that they’re gonna
die very compressed. We’re not just
spreading them out. And so that’s a devastating
blow to our society no matter what. So I guess, I would say that in answer to your question that
we always are willing to pay some economic costs
to save lives, and I acknowledge that going
into a major depression, or a major recession,
and possibly a depression is a huge cost for our society. But I would suggest to you that we would likely
have faced that anyway, if we had done nothing, but then we also would have
had all of these deaths, so I think it’s necessary. – Yeah, all right. So we’re just gonna do two more. I know you’ve got a
crazy day ahead of you. And then I’m just gonna
email you some of these, and maybe you can
get to some of them. But there were also
a bunch about this. Is there any
confirmation whether airborne transmission
is possible? I mean, if someone has it
and you’re at the store, and you’re avoiding
everybody the best you can and you’re wearing gloves
and the rest of it, but somebody breathes on
you or sneezes on you, or something like that. I think
there’s a little confusion as to what airborne transmission
actually mean maybe. – Yeah, so droplet transmission is when a liquid, like I
sneeze or cough or spit, and they’re droplets
that go through the air and land on you, in
your nose or your mouth and transmits it to you, and that’s why we’re
supposed to stay, four or five or six feet
away from each other because if I sneeze and
I’m six feet away from you, the droplets would
go through the air and then fall into the
ground and not reach you. Airborne is when tiny
particulates, maybe
the virus itself are floating through the
air, and can reach you. We believe that
there is both droplet and airborne transmission, and is probably fecal
transmission as well which is a little bit
concerning of this pathogen and something called
fomite transmission, which is that the pathogen
can stay on surfaces, especially smooth surfaces. So porous things like paper
money or fabrics, less so, but smooth surfaces like
elevator buttons, doorknobs, kitchen counters, can stay more. But the virus is
also very fragile. It’s encapsulated
in a lipid Kote. The viruses work by
taking over our own cells, and they grow inside ourselves, and then they explode
out of ourselves. And as they explode out, they take a little bit of
our cell membrane with them, so they’re encapsulated
in this lipid membrane, and that helps them to
be more transmissible, but it makes them very
vulnerable to soap. So cleanliness, this is
why washing your hands, and when you wash your hands, you should wash
between your fingers and the backs of your hands. Many people are saying,
“Sing the Happy Birthday song “twice while you
wash your hands.” It’s true, but that
does kill the virus. So when you go out and about, if you avoid touching your face, if you wash your hands
before you return home, that is very basic hygiene. That’s actually very helpful. And experiments have
shown this by the way, it’s not just old wives tales. Like people actually do
studies where they touch stuff, and then they wash their hands and they see if the
virus goes away. – Yeah, all right. So the last one then is I got
a couple of versions of this that we’re all
concerned about this and even the way I’m
trying to do these shows, I’m not trying to
overload people too much. And I don’t want everyone
glued to their TVs endlessly. What else do you
make of just sort of the human condition in the
midst of a pandemic like this? – Well, as you know,
because we talked about it the last time you and I
met, I just wrote this book. – Yeah, you got a
whole book about it. It’s right over there. – I know. I wrote this book called, “Blueprint: The Evolutionary
Origins of a Good Society.” And as you know,
Dave, I’m an optimist. I believe in human beings. I marvel at our
capacity for goodness. I recognize our capacity
for evil and selfishness and tribalism and violence. But I also revere and
admire our capacity for love and friendship, and
cooperation and teaching. In fact, all of these are things
that we’re using right now to confront this virus. We are banding together
and working together to fight off this invader. We are using our
capacity for teaching. The reason we know what
to do in this case, is because previous humans
who confronted this virus wrote down, “Here’s what you do “when you’re facing a pandemic.” You literally can go… There’s a book right
here, I can look over and see it’s called, “National Strategy for
Influenza Pandemics.” Like there are books that you
can open up like a cookbook and they say, “Here’s what you
do when there’s a pandemic.” It’s amazing. We can transmit this
knowledge to each other and therefore, cope
with this enemy, the virus that is attacking us. So this is why I am
hopeful and optimistic. The virus will eventually
pass, our species will survive. It is unfortunate
that many will die. We don’t know how many. The virus will become endemic. We will see the
other side of this, but we do have to work
together as a society to shore up our industries, to protect our
healthcare workers, from whom we’re gonna
ask tremendous amounts, and from whom we’re gonna
ask to take tremendous risks. When I was a doctor, I
mean, I’m a physician and I don’t see
patients anymore, but when I was patients,
especially in the 1990s, the HIV epidemic
was very prominent. And there was a lot of concern that if you took care
of patients with HIV, and a lot of those
patients were gay, or they were from Haiti,
or they were drug users, they were groups that back then
were especially stigmatized. And so there was a
lot of like, kind of, “Oh, well, we won’t take
care of those people.” And there was fear among
healthcare providers, like if you stuck them, and
you got their blood on you, you might contract
this deadly disease. But we were expected
to take personal risks. We were expected to
care for these patients. It’s a calling to be
a doctor or a nurse. It’s a moral obligation. And so we expect a huge amount
from our doctors and nurses and health care
providers right now. We expect them to
take these risks. But it’s not the same to
expect them to take the risks with the proper equipment versus to send them
to certain death. That is to say without masks,
gloves, protective equipment. And so I’m very concerned that we’re not
taking this serious, we don’t have the
right equipment to equip our frontline medical
personnel to deal with this. And this is why I’m also
upset that we squandered the six weeks that the
Chinese bought for us by locking down their nation. We should have been planning
to equip our hospitals with this personal protective
equipment, with ventilators, with staffing, with procedures
at which we can discuss, it’s too technical and boring,
to confront this epidemic. So we’re behind
now, is the problem, and I hope very much
we can catch up. And this is again, why social
distancing is so important to slow this thing down so
we can let our supply chain, our scientists, our
politicians, frankly, catch up so that we
can cope with this. – Well, Nick, I always consider
you one of the cleanest, clearest thinkers
that we’ve got, and especially in
a time like this, so I appreciate you
taking the time. And maybe we’ll get you back on in a couple weeks as
this thing continues to (overlapping conversation)
– Yes. Thank you very much
for having, David, and thank you to your listeners. – Hey everyone, we’re obviously in some unchartered
territory with coronavirus, and our plan here is to
help you make as much sense of the situation in a
nonalarmist fashion as possible. If you’re looking for reliable
information from experts on the frontlines
of the pandemic, check out our
coronavirus playlist, which we’ll keep adding
updates to right over here. And to get notified
of all future videos be sure to subscribe.

Jean Kelley

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100 COMMENTS

  1. Matthew - san Posted on March 20, 2020 at 1:12 pm

    Thanks for keeping us informed with good information Dave!

    Reply
  2. Ccmusic Posted on March 20, 2020 at 1:56 pm

    "The flue shot lowers the risk of getting the flu": Not this year. Most of my friends who got the shot got the flu. Perhaps a different strain, but they definitely got it.

    Reply
  3. Ccmusic Posted on March 20, 2020 at 1:59 pm

    "I had an article in The Atlantic"…….uhhhhhh

    Reply
  4. carlotapuig Posted on March 20, 2020 at 2:00 pm

    It is so pathetic and irresponsible that utube shadow bans this channel and others reporting about the pandemic, including this video. Absolutely scandalous.

    Reply
  5. Rotor Head Posted on March 20, 2020 at 2:05 pm

    Every 1% of unemployment results in the death of 40,000 people.

    Reply
  6. Michael Daniel Posted on March 20, 2020 at 2:39 pm

    We ran out of n 95 mask in January. At stores due to Chinese black market seller hording and sending them home.

    Reply
  7. John Naples Posted on March 20, 2020 at 2:53 pm

    Maybe, Dave, you could distill all this academic lip flapping into a tutorial of relevant facts.

    Reply
  8. Dreama Dove Posted on March 20, 2020 at 3:27 pm

    Dave, you're looking very yellow. Are you okay?

    Reply
  9. trakaill Posted on March 20, 2020 at 3:29 pm

    This sounded to me like he was praising authoritarian regimes… Yeah no thanks Dave. That guy is a clown

    Reply
  10. trakaill Posted on March 20, 2020 at 3:30 pm

    China lied and covered up and jailed people trying to tell the truth… This guy is disgusting. All the pathogens he mentioned all were from China as well..

    Reply
  11. John Bailey Posted on March 20, 2020 at 3:35 pm

    Rubin why do you have China ass kisser on? I'm done watching this one. Check you out on the next one. h wait he mentioned good testing. Yerp we should have gone with the one from Germany that has a 30% fail rate.

    Reply
  12. Torie Morris Posted on March 20, 2020 at 3:44 pm

    Are you jaundice?

    Reply
  13. William Gates III Posted on March 20, 2020 at 4:01 pm

    This guy post all credibility when he pretended china has done a good job.

    They were literally arresting the first doctors who treated corona and tried to get the word out to people. They literally were sending people out of the country.

    Reply
  14. Tom K Posted on March 20, 2020 at 4:03 pm

    Why is it "ridiculous " to think the CCP has a problem killing chinese. This is typical of thousands of articles: When, in 1959, Mao was challenged about these events at a party conference, he purged his enemies. Enveloped by an atmosphere of terror, officials returned to China’s provinces to double down on Mao’s policies. Tens of millions died.

    Reply
  15. Tom K Posted on March 20, 2020 at 4:06 pm

    The quarantine you at gunpoint you jackass leftist!

    Reply
  16. Basia N Posted on March 20, 2020 at 4:07 pm

    Key word "REGISTERED" cases. What they don't want you to know, they won't inform you about 😉

    Reply
  17. Tom K Posted on March 20, 2020 at 4:07 pm

    See why dont people like him move to china!!

    Reply
  18. DocSiders Posted on March 20, 2020 at 4:45 pm

    For Plaquenil to have optimal effect it along with extra zinc needs to be present BEFORE the virus attaches to a cell's receptors. The virus reaction at the cell membrane acts in hundredths of a second. So Plaquenil would have it's greatest effect prophylactically…before infection. That might prevent most infections.

    Reply
  19. Tom Quinn Posted on March 20, 2020 at 4:57 pm

    He has absolutely no basis to state that the virus was not manufactured by Chinese researchers.

    Reply
  20. HotRod Ray Posted on March 20, 2020 at 6:01 pm

    Lock the USA down for 2-4 weeks and stop the spread.
    96% aren't prepared.
    They laughed at PREPPERS for years. Who's laughing now… (Not really the preppers)

    Reply
  21. 4 Eyed Animation Posted on March 20, 2020 at 8:53 pm

    Hmmmm I don't know

    Reply
  22. Andrew C. Posted on March 20, 2020 at 9:40 pm

    I don't think the Spanish flu killed "millions." I think the final toll, after two waves, was between 650 and 700 thousand. Many more got very sick, however.

    Reply
  23. Tom Cotter Posted on March 20, 2020 at 11:09 pm

    Dave doing a straight, no commentary interview is pleasantly calming.

    Reply
  24. JH Lim Posted on March 20, 2020 at 11:12 pm

    CDS (China Derangement Syndrome) is strong in this comment section.

    Reply
  25. Marmocet Posted on March 21, 2020 at 12:01 am

    Maybe Christakis said this and I missed it, but the reason this virus will probably become less severe over time is because it constantly mutates and mutant variants that cause mild symptoms will be spread much faster than mutant variants that cause severe symptoms. People who only have mild symptoms, or no symptoms at all, will spread their strain of the virus to many more people than those with strains that cause severe symptoms, who will tend to self-isolate and thereby spread their illness to fewer people. Those who catch and overcome milder variants are likely to gain partial or full immunity to more severe, closely related strains, so gradually the more severe variants will go extinct.

    Reply
  26. watchman56able Posted on March 21, 2020 at 12:13 am

    China hid the virus for months. They have caused the deaths of tens of thousands of people and tanked the economy of the whole world.

    Reply
  27. Anthony Harburn Posted on March 21, 2020 at 12:18 am

    While you are stuck at home… Research Flat Earth… Check my channel out to start… Wake up This Lock Down Crap is not right… My mam is 84 and I look after her 24/7… I disagree with all this BS.. My mam is my responsibility and I can Isolate her from the F-ing Flue and take all necessary precautions to do exactly that… what is going on is WRONG…

    Reply
  28. AB CD Posted on March 21, 2020 at 1:14 am

    South Korea is the only country that seems to have a grip on stopping the spread of the virus. South Korea test 20,000 people a day and quarantines the positive people. That way there is no disruption of business, schools, etc.

    Reply
  29. The Magnificent Mongo Slade Posted on March 21, 2020 at 1:18 am

    The KIND thing to do is to assume people are infected and not touch them and stay away from them.

    Christakis is "astonished" that a totalitarian regime welded people into their homes and arrested a doctor who tried to inform the world of the disease.

    These leftist professors need to be held accountable for this kind of talk. He likes China so much, he needs to live in that society.

    Reply
  30. Christopher Mirkovich Posted on March 21, 2020 at 1:34 am

    Every county has different tests nothing is uniformed…. Let's all get it and move on already

    Reply
  31. luis faelnar Posted on March 21, 2020 at 2:15 am

    please invite Ms Maura Moynihan for your next guest, topic China, main media and Corona Virus.

    Reply
  32. Grant Samson Posted on March 21, 2020 at 2:28 am

    You lost me at "not enough surveillance".

    Reply
  33. your life is your fault. Posted on March 21, 2020 at 2:42 am

    22:30 watch His body language.
    Eyes dart everywhere, blinkety blink blink, umm eye touch uhh head scratch um uhh… probably because Harvard chair of chemistry & chemical biology was arrested recruiting researchers & scientists for China. Look it up that's not a conspiracy.

    Reply
  34. Buddy Lotion Posted on March 21, 2020 at 2:43 am

    I saw video footage from Chinese dissidents where Chinese police are welding entire families inside their apartments. Children most likely starving inside there with their infected relatives. It's really terrible.

    Reply
  35. Thomas Hogan Posted on March 21, 2020 at 2:50 am

    It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the government created this too thin the herd. I’m quite sure there are plans on the drawing board for population control!!!🛸🛸🛸🛸🛸🛸

    Reply
  36. censorship bites Posted on March 21, 2020 at 5:57 am

    I have to call Bullsh!t on Dr. Christakis. Let's look at China's response: China didn't even start acknowledging coronavirus until Feb. – I know because I was at the central PSB in late Jan – even though cases emerged in Dec. Coverage from Chinese media, which is all state-run, was late and pure propaganda. The Great Firewall kept foreign info out, and China refused entry to the WHO and CDC. And you had foreign ministry spox Zhao Lijian straight up claiming the US Army brought COVID-19 to China. "Astonishing" my a$$.

    Reply
  37. Atsef Divad Posted on March 21, 2020 at 6:18 am

    Thanks Dr Nick. Sorry bout the Yale Commies

    Reply
  38. Dewayne Holland Posted on March 21, 2020 at 6:33 am

    Anyone who thinks China has their own peoples best interest in mind needs to go back read up on 1989 Tiananmen Square protests. We did respond late like the rest of the world, because China covered it up. If you think that Doctor who blew the whistle, really died from a supposed case of COVID19, then I got some swamp land in Arizona I'll sell you. The president calls for a ban on travel with China, and all the media can do is criticize him and call him a racist. Were getting to see first hand the kind of B.S. this man has endured. Quit looking at the bird, and pay attention to the lion whose about to have you for lunch. People all across the nation tried to embrace every single amendment they wanted to do away with, just as soon as things went south. I refuse to go back to the way things were.

    Reply
  39. Light House Posted on March 21, 2020 at 6:49 am

    Dude what if china did this to break us down

    Reply
  40. chewbrew Posted on March 21, 2020 at 6:58 am

    It would have been good to briefly cover the case for NOT closing schools in the US. There are strong and valid arguments for this opposite case. Singapore and Australia are two countries which have chosen not to close schools at this point.

    Reply
  41. Charlie Hubbard Posted on March 21, 2020 at 7:15 am

    This guy's opening rant made me click off. I want nothing to do with alarmists.

    Reply
  42. TexasGI47 meets LaDama.SpanishGirl Posted on March 21, 2020 at 8:08 am

    @11:17 Community-acquired case is like the canary in the coal mine, according to Dr. Christakis. Unlike the imported infected person that can be isolated after coming in from the outside, the community-acquired case involves an unknown origin. Nothing to do with the canary. We know where the canaries come from. The idea when this technique was used in coal mines back in the day, was that if the bird in the cage dies, then it is time to get out of dodge. Nobody is taking healthy people into infected areas to locate trouble. Maybe in the FEMA camps, but not in regular parts of the US.

    Reply
  43. Shady Shadpus Posted on March 21, 2020 at 8:55 am

    You know those toothpicks in the lift ? People with the VIRUS! have coughed all over them for a laugh ! You're all going to die !!! Now where the hell do I find a loaf of bread ?

    Reply
  44. Amity Ville Posted on March 21, 2020 at 10:15 am

    Very informative. Appreciated!

    Reply
  45. Roland Strauss Posted on March 21, 2020 at 10:15 am

    Doesn't drug abuse alone kill 1m people in the US?

    Reply
  46. Joshua Youngblood Posted on March 21, 2020 at 11:43 am

    This dude ….”40 percent of Americans will get this, maybe 10 maybe 20”, I mean that’s real scientific. Laughable!!!!

    Reply
  47. Douglas waterman Posted on March 21, 2020 at 11:55 am

    Well, first of all, I don't see how 100,000 people are going to die from the Corona virus. The Corona virus is not so bad. What will kill well over 100,000 people is our economy collapsing. And our governments are doing just that!

    Reply
  48. Douglas waterman Posted on March 21, 2020 at 11:56 am

    Well, first of all, I don't see how 100,000 people are going to die from the Corona virus. The Corona virus is not so bad. What will kill well over 100,000 people is our economy collapsing. And our governments are doing just that!

    Reply
  49. Katie Boo's Cell Posted on March 21, 2020 at 12:55 pm

    Thank you so much for mentioning people on dialysis. People seem not to realize we are part of the high-risk group that if we get this COVID-19 we have a very high chance of dying. I am in my mid 40's and am on dialysis but also since I had a transplant before that failed due to Septic Shock and Pneumonia (similar to this virus) the docs kept me on my transplant meds which means I am ALSO immunosuppressed. With how I couldn't breathe 2 years ago and almost died from respiratory distress and then I hear how this virus/disease works, it absolutely terrifies me .. and yet when SARS was in my area of Canada I was not worried. I don't know if COVID-19 is super hyped or if it was because of my experience 2 years ago having to be intubated for 3 days in ICU but I really don't think I could live through something like that again.

    Reply
  50. dilbertgeg Posted on March 21, 2020 at 1:16 pm

    Dr Nick C of the Yale Halloween kerfluffle, he's definitely making me feel safe now. Safer. I hope no Social Justice people will feel HURT by this talk occurring years after Nick and his wife so harmfully ignored the crisis of people maybe choosing to wear rude Halloween costumes at an Ivy League college.

    Reply
  51. westfield90 Posted on March 21, 2020 at 1:27 pm

    Umm China and South Korea defeated the virus without waiting 18 months for a vaccine. They did it by focusing resources only on hotspots and current medicines. It’s not anecdotal and doesn’t take months and months and a destroyed economy, we have wrong advisors

    Reply
  52. E F Posted on March 21, 2020 at 2:26 pm

    Isn't he saying everything the President's Task Force has been telling us?

    Reply
  53. Casey Poe Posted on March 21, 2020 at 2:28 pm

    Ok cool, but this isn’t new information. We’ve been told this ad nauseum for several days.

    Reply
  54. marcmarc1967 Posted on March 21, 2020 at 2:41 pm

    This increased risk of death for older people is true of any bad thing that could happen to them. Flu, cold, cancer, getting in a car accident, being shot, falling in the shower, breaking you leg, being punched in the stomach, stressful evacuation because of a hurricane, etc, etc. Old people are fragile, especially once you are over 80. It's not unique to the coronavirus.

    Reply
  55. marcmarc1967 Posted on March 21, 2020 at 2:43 pm

    The last place sick people should go is the hospital.

    Reply
  56. Alexey Tovbin Posted on March 21, 2020 at 3:19 pm

    You call for more surveillance?? Fuck you!!!

    Reply
  57. kerry lattimore Posted on March 21, 2020 at 3:32 pm

    Oh my! A leftist doctor/sociologist working for the government giving advice. Of course lets destroy our economy over this flu. Keep the vulnerable, the elderly and unhealthy quarantined. Have food, toiletries, medicines, etc. delivered to their doors. Have someone phone them daily. The young and healthy stay at their jobs and keep the economy running. Uneccesary social meetings (bookclubs, church, car shows, weddings, etc.) can be prohibited. Keeping distance, handwashing, no handshaking, no hugging can all be followed. Why is no one realizing the collapse of our economy is a tragedy.

    Reply
  58. I Got Zucced Posted on March 21, 2020 at 4:02 pm

    He’s a Chinese paid actor

    Reply
  59. econohound Posted on March 21, 2020 at 4:14 pm

    Best wishes and good luck America, from the UK.. Please get ready !!

    Reply
  60. Shady Brady Posted on March 21, 2020 at 4:31 pm

    This guy is such a moron. He talks about how the United States and China have different values. He goes on to talk about how we value freedom of expression in the United States, while seeming to praise China's ability to lock the country down. Apparently this asshole doesn't understand that if China were to value free expression, none of this would have happened in the first place. People were on top of this early, and they were being silenced and jailed. So stick it up your ass Christakis.

    Reply
  61. Darby O'Hara Posted on March 21, 2020 at 4:36 pm

    It would have been nice if Rubin challenged the doctor on why closures make any sense doing now vs when we didn’t do them for h1n1 Sars etc.

    Based on the data the doctor is going off of it seems grossly overreactive for states to order closures of businesses.

    Reply
  62. szeredai akos Posted on March 21, 2020 at 5:29 pm

    If one is doing social networks that person should be fully familiar with statistical tools. His sentence with the expression "lets say 100k" is a dead giveaway that he's incompetence or, just simply stopped giving a fuck down the line. Which is not surprising. I am sick of SARS 2.0 hysteria.

    Reply
  63. John Olson Posted on March 21, 2020 at 5:49 pm

    If authoritarian regimes are so efficient why hasn't China secured its food production and distribution systems so these viruses quit crossing from animals to humans?

    Reply
  64. JoeyD Posted on March 21, 2020 at 7:08 pm

    This guy believes the data he gets from China lock, stock, and barrel. That’s why I’m not taking him seriously.

    Reply
  65. NOPE. Posted on March 21, 2020 at 7:39 pm

    “Get a flu shot”.
    Nope.
    He needs to study what med school did not teach him about all vaccines.

    Reply
  66. Colin Copland Posted on March 21, 2020 at 8:17 pm

    Rubin Report reaches out to a physician to give an informed opinion on the coronavirus.
    CNN interviewed Sean Penn (yes, really!) on what should be done to address the coronavirus.
    This is big piece of why trust in journalism associated with Manhattan corporate media is dying.

    Reply
  67. Bob McCarter Posted on March 21, 2020 at 9:13 pm

    I've not seen this news update anywhere, but are the almost billion people in China still under house arrest?

    Reply
  68. PETER JOHN BRANDAL Posted on March 21, 2020 at 10:01 pm

    The Chinese government purposely concealed the outbreak so the US would get hid as hard as possible. They would gladly trade 100M Chinese lives to get rid of President Trump.

    Reply
  69. Gary K. Nedrow Posted on March 21, 2020 at 10:22 pm

    The premise that COVID-19 is Armageddon and 100,000 Americans are going to die is faulty, apparently based on linear extensions of the inflated data typical of every epidemic. See Prof. Epstein's explanation of epidemiology and disease progression on Reason TV. The advice here on how to avoid contracting the virus is sound. Our present containment policy was adopted to buy time for healthcare institutions and the medical supply chain to adjust to unexpected demand. By May 1, that will be accomplished: test kits will be widely available, the vulnerable in our population will be better protected, routine treatment protocols will catch up to the caseload, and temporary treatment centers will be functioning. We should see cases and deaths fall after that date. The media hysteria and "doom and gloom" scenarios are not justified and counter-productive.

    Reply
  70. Planetanitaac Posted on March 21, 2020 at 10:57 pm

    Thank you, RR

    Reply
  71. theeprincess777 Posted on March 21, 2020 at 11:52 pm

    Not 70 everywhere in so cal. We live just an hour north of Los Angeles in the high desert , still LA County; but we get much colder/hotter weather plus snow. Many people here commute to LA daily so nice weather there wouldn’t protect the spread. Stay safe everyone and practice good habits for protection

    Reply
  72. Jonny Bravo Posted on March 22, 2020 at 2:39 am

    So what do you do if you have no money/ income for weeks or months…that’s the real concern! We all know the answer to that!

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  73. Skiddles 2000 Posted on March 22, 2020 at 3:09 am

    This guy is a great China fan. He should move there…..

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  74. Ted Bergmann Posted on March 22, 2020 at 3:49 am

    "It can't just be here, everybody must suffer"…. Thanks CCP. Well played?

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  75. G K Posted on March 22, 2020 at 4:30 am

    Chinas government didn't buy us time! There is evidence that they suppressed the CCP Virus.

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  76. Mike Christoff Posted on March 22, 2020 at 4:43 am

    We’ve done this pretty well!?!? There are 12 cases in my town of about 30 thousand. I work at Lowe’s and I can tell you we are not doing well. I interacted with at least 1000 people today. To me it seems like not many people are taking this seriously at all.

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  77. Bev B Posted on March 22, 2020 at 4:45 am

    Flu shot? The flu vaccine is based upon scientists predicting which version of the flu will crop up. NEVER ONCE have the scientists correctly predicted the strain they created the vaccine for. So…no flu shot for me.

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  78. Corey Ciepiela Posted on March 22, 2020 at 5:49 am

    So if the majority of people will have mild symptoms or are asymptomatic, then the number of infected could much higher and thus lowering the mortality rate.
    I also keep hearing every single one of these experts saying “we don’t know” “we need more data” things like that. So, you’re saying we shutdown our economy on speculation based on models that have poor assumptions and not enough facts to give an accurate picture? Yes, we jumped the gun on this one.
    “Oh, but more people could die in a month if we didn’t do this” that’s still a speculation. You don’t know for sure that’ll happen

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  79. Randall Fowler Posted on March 22, 2020 at 7:15 am

    This guy seems wayyyyy too excited. Its like he wants to show how smart he is and become famous because of the outbreak. Not a fan.

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  80. Russell Miller Posted on March 22, 2020 at 7:20 am

    I did something that i have not done in a while and it seems to have paid off on my health a great deal. Potassium pills. I got the idea from someone commenting a few days ago online. Taking potassium does i honestly think does block this virus some. of course anything you take will have some kind of side effect. But if you stay within a recommended dose and not stray too far from it this will make a very big difference. I am diabetic so i experiment a little with stuff some from time to time. So I would recommend this. But like always don't take my word for it research it some and so forth before trying it. different people with different conditions it could cause more damage than good.

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  81. NastyPaul Posted on March 22, 2020 at 9:24 am

    This guy’s got holes in his understanding of this virus and it’s trajectory.

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  82. Nikhil VJ Posted on March 22, 2020 at 12:44 pm

    Great to see Nick Christakis about something other than the crazy Yale crowd. And those idiotic spoilt brats should be ashamed of themselves for harassing and attacking this man the way they did.

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  83. Philip Posted on March 22, 2020 at 12:49 pm

    Dave: please consider not using the very poor phrase "social distancing" and instead, speak of "maintaining healthy physical proximity or space." social distancing is incorrect and carries a most negative connotation. In actuality, more folks are reaching out tom each other (especially to our elderly) versus "distancing" from them. Thanks for this video and remain healthy Dr. Phil

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  84. Philip Posted on March 22, 2020 at 12:51 pm

    Dr. Nick nails it: "physical" distancing. Bravo Doctor. I heard this after I posted the comment below.

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  85. Philip Posted on March 22, 2020 at 2:17 pm

    I wonder: can we trust information that the chinese proffer?

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  86. Marco M. Posted on March 22, 2020 at 2:17 pm

    The world has decided that the debate of whether or not we can share a virus is over… What if we could not! How would you create a World Wide Pandemic? "like popcorn in a Microwave!" …5G LTE

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  87. Philip Posted on March 22, 2020 at 2:21 pm

    "Praise" for the communist, atheist, murdering chinese government? Really? Tyranny and dictatorship is good for anything?

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  88. Justin Richtmyre Posted on March 22, 2020 at 2:44 pm

    China blamed the US for the virus. I wouldn’t strain myself bending over backwards to be an apologist for China.

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  89. Paul Elliott Posted on March 22, 2020 at 2:51 pm

    No, not happy birthday. You must sing the national anthem!

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  90. Maga Boy Posted on March 22, 2020 at 2:53 pm

    Covid19 is fake and created by the liberal lieing media, i don't believe their BS, sorry

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  91. Lynne Davis Posted on March 22, 2020 at 3:22 pm

    satan is the only thing that would create this senario. This is not of God, everything including driving people away from eachother.

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  92. ConservativeWithoutGod Posted on March 22, 2020 at 4:26 pm

    Dave, I'm disappointed in you. This "doctor" is a California hack. China's response was not remarkable, it was authoritarian. They didn't "have the ability to put their country on lockdown", they WELDED people into their houses, detained and quarantined people who were sick, not necessarily with the coronavirus and more significantly, they are now going and opening up those welded houses to find people dead. China imprisoned several people who were tying to get the truth out, oh yeah and China WOULD kill their own people. This doctor is praising an authoritarian country and even more egregious, he believes the Chinese scientists, who are controlled by the Chinese government, as if the truth would ever come out of China. He is a Hollywood type "doctor" and it shows in his choice of words.

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  93. Cora Dailay Posted on March 22, 2020 at 4:48 pm

    I don't Trust the Chinese Communist Party Regime, they COVER it from the WORLD and only declared the Wuhan Corona Virus to W. H. O. because a lot of VIDEOS by Chinese Protesters were POSTED. And they LOCKED there own people INSIDE their HOMES to DIE & didn't declared actual deaths. We must BOYCOTT CHINA, BUY MADE in the USA and BRING BACK AMERICAN INDUSTRIES from China to America❤️💜🇺🇸.

    Reply
  94. B T Posted on March 22, 2020 at 5:45 pm

    Sounds like a commie lover to me..

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  95. doorran Posted on March 22, 2020 at 6:31 pm

    good info… might have been nice to start discussing this 2 months ago. The testing is a BIG problem right now. I figure more than twice as many people have this than is being reported. I am 99 percent sure I have it. I also am a full time care giver for my 83 year old mother .. yet I can't get a stupid test to save my life. Yeah, dry cough and shortness of breath. The hoops are so ridiculous I can't get anyone to test me. If only I was someone "important" like my radical leftist congressman who already tested positive and is receiveing care. china's responce, poor. They lied; they kept it untransparant…. and we cannot trust any data coming out from china now. In China there are no local authorities.. they are all communist party.

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  96. Tim Pool without a beanie. Posted on March 22, 2020 at 6:57 pm

    I don't understand how the same amount of people get sick and die whether we do social distancing or not.

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  97. Mayela Sepulveda Posted on March 22, 2020 at 7:46 pm

    How is professor Jordan?

    Reply
  98. Lisa c Posted on March 22, 2020 at 8:08 pm

    Doesn't getting the flu shot lower your immune system??

    Reply
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